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2.4 TODAY’S MARKETS AND MARKET SCENARIOS
2.4.1 MARKET DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS
In the National Electromobility Development plan the goal has been set
to bring one million electric vehicles onto German roads by the year
2020 [German Federal Government (2009)]. This goal applies for the
vehicle population and consequently is particularly relevant with re-
gard to the charging infrastructure that will be necessary in the future.
The development plan considers pure battery electric vehicles (BEV)
and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV), including range extended vehicles
(REEV), that are primarily used as passenger vehicles but also as com-
mercial vehicles [German Federal Government (2009)] (see Fig. 20).
In the second report of the National PlatformElectromobility, published
in May 2011, several incentive measures were introduced to achieve
this goal. If these types of measures are not implemented, the ana-
lyses from the NPE assume only 450,000 electric vehicles in the year
2020 [NPE (2011a)]. To estimate market development, a metastudy
was executed that analyses and combines the results of existing
studies. These studies do not start with the vehicle population, but
rather start with sales per year. Using a metastudy offers the advan-
tage that potential incorrect estimates can be compensated for in
the studies analyzed. Moreover, the data stock can be adjusted for
extreme scenarios. As compared to the situation in 2009, the market
scenarios differ fundamentally in the anticipated dynamic development
of the automobile market. For the most part, this is attributed to the
excellent fundamental economic data, such as worldwide economic
growth andworldwide employment at the time this studywas prepared.
Development of the automobile market (or the scenario of diffusion of
alternative propulsion concepts) depends on various factors according
to the study analyzed.
21 NPE (2011a)
Fig. 20: Market ramp-up curve of the NPE
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