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The oil price plays a major role in the studies from the Boston Con-
sulting Group [BCG (2011)] and from Bain [Bain (2010b)]. Indeed,
for the Boston Consulting Group, the price per barrel is the main
differentiating factor relating to the development of electromobili-
ty. It should be noted here that changes in the oil price are not pro-
portional to the price of gasoline (or diesel price [Welt online (2011)].
The CO
2
limit values are discussed in the studies from McKinsey
[McKinsey (2011c)] and Bain [Bain (2010b)]. High regulatory dyna-
mics are referred to. In the EU, for new cars, reduction of emissi-
ons to an average of 95 grams per kilometer has been demanded
by the year 2020 [AISBL (2011)]. China has set lofty goals for itself
[Chinese Embassy (2010)], even if these goals are internationally
non-binding. Thus, measured by economic growth, CO
2
emissi-
ons should be reduced by 40-45 percent as compared to the year
2005 [Reuters (2011)]. In the USA the goal has been set to reduce
greenhouse gases by 83 percent by the year 2050 [EERE (2009)].
According to the Roland Berger estimate, the reduction goals of
the EU, in particular, are so strict that optimization of combustion
technology will not be sufficient to achieve these goals [Roland
Berger (2009)]. This holds additional potential for alternative pro-
pulsion technologies.
Subsidy and promotion policies also play a considerable role in
the studies of Bain [Bain (2010b)] and PRTM [(PRTM (2011)]. See
the chapter on the international subsidy situation for an in-depth
discussion.
In addition, cost development of central components, particularly
of the battery must be included in the scenario development. This
was considered as a central point by PRTM [PRTM (2011)] and the
International Energy Agency [IEA (2011)].
The newly-industrialized countries, such as China, India, and
Brazil were emphasized in the studies that were analyzed. These
countries are characterized by high growth and have great poten-
tial for market development.
The plans pushed through by the Chinese government, to make the
domestic market one of the leading markets for electric vehicles,
are reflected in extensive subsidies and incentives for consumers.
Moreover, Chinese companies have been formed into an alliance
over the entire value-creation chain and are working towards the
common (government) goal [GTAI (2011)].
In India, it is expected that the subcontinent will become the third
largest automobile market by the year 2020. Smaller passenger
vehicles are expected to dominate the Indian market [JD Power
(2011)].
In terms of the size of the automobile market, Brazil surpassed
Germany in 2010. High growth rates are anticipated for this South
American country in the coming years; at this point in time, only
one in seven Brazilians owns a car. In addition, alternative propul-
sion technologies have had a special significance since the 1973
oil crisis and the focus is more on ethanol fuels than on cars with
electrical components.
The changes, to which the forecasts concerning use of vehicles
with electrical components are subject, are demonstrated by the
variance in the estimates of the various consulting firms. Moreo-
ver, it is difficult to anticipate technological breakthroughs. Never-
theless the results of the metastudy executed here clearly reflect
the change of the automobile market toward electromobility.
Overall in the metastudy, a worldwide increase of car sales, from
approximately 60 million in 2010 to approximately 87 million in 2020,
is expected. This would correspond to annual growth of 3.7 percent.
The share of vehicles with electric propulsion components grows
at rate that is highly disproportionate. While in 2010 only hybrid
vehicles showed sales figures worthy of note (approx. 1.2 m.), in
2020 the following sales figures are expected:
• REEV
22
: 4.2 m. units
• BEV: 4.6 m. units
• PHEV: 4.9 m. units
• HEV: 14.6 m. units
Considering the relative values, the metastudy suggests that the
share of cars with a pure combustion engine will drop from the
current approximately 90 percent to approximately 67 percent (see
Fig. 21).
22 The numbers for REEV and PHEV were usually added to other vehicle classes in the studies considered and were only
separated out when the metastudy was prepared.
Chapter 2