Page 39 - TeamStrunz_e_mobil_structure_study_en

Basic HTML Version

The Federal Government has also defined goals for the spread of
electromobility in Germany after 2020: By the year 2030, six million
electric vehicles should be running on Germany’s roads. This is part
of Germany‘s advanced climate protection strategy, which fore-
casts a reduction of greenhouse emissions by 80 percent, compared
to 1990, by the year 2050 [German Federal Government (2010)]. The
European Union goes even further and would like to achieve a re-
duction in emissions of up to 95 percent by the year 2050 [European
Commission (2011)]. If the state environmental protection goals re-
main unchanged in Germany and the rest of the world, then at the
very least a significant increase in the market share of alternative
propulsion technologies must be considered.
2.4.2 LIFE CYCLE COST CONSIDERATIONS
The market penetration of electromobile propulsion concepts signi-
ficantly depends on the profitability of these concepts for producers
and owners. Relative to conventional vehicles based on combustion
engines, electric vehicles have significant additional manufacturing
costs. The reason is primarily the high cost of the batteries. At this
point in time, a precise estimate of the development of these addi-
tional manufacturing costs is not really possible. Through increa-
sing product volumes or other breakthroughs in battery technology,
these additional costs could be drastically reduced, according to
the assessment of the National Platform Electromobility (NPE) [NPE
(2011a)].
For the year 2020, the NPE however expects purchase prices for
electric vehicles to be significantly higher than the purchase prices
for conventional vehicles [NPE (2011a)]. Due to the different cost
structure of conventional and electric vehicles, for a breakthrough
of electromobility it will be crucial to make users aware of the total
costs of different propulsion technologies over the entire life cyc-
le. While fleet operators are already making decisions today on the
basis of total cost calculations, for the private user it is frequently
still the purchase price that is the most important criterion for the
purchase decision.
The so-called life cycle cost (Life Cycle Cost = LCC) or Total Cost of
Ownership (TOC) include not only the actual purchase price but also
all operating costs, such as:
Fig. 21: Results of the metastudy »Market development - propulsion concepts«
23
23 Authors’ own illustration I McKinsey (2011c) I BCG (2011) I Bain (2010) I IEA (2011) I JD Power (2010) I Scotiabank (2011) I PRTM (2011) I Authors’ own calculations