Page 53 - TeamStrunz_e_mobil_structure_study_en

Basic HTML Version

included, in the extended sense, in the group of automobile sup-
pliers [Kinkel (2007); Jaeger (2009); IHK (2011)]. Thus, in Baden-
Württemberg, approximately 600 firms fall into the group of auto-
mobile suppliers [(IHK (2011)].
In addition, the automobile trade, as well as numerous automobi-
le-based service companies (R&D, engineering offices, hardware
and software companies) employs a large number of people in
Baden-Württemberg. With due consideration of all the areas ci-
ted, overall in the state of Baden-Württemberg more than 400,000
employees contribute directly or indirectly to the automobile value
creation chain.
40
Measured by the total number of employees in
the state, this is approximately every 10th person. In the Stutt-
gart region as many as 17 percent of employees earn their money
through the automobile [IMU Institute (2011)].
To summarize this data, the automobile industry can be under-
stood as a multi-level construct, as shown in Fig. 33. According
to the NACE system (NACE class 29), at the core of the cluster
there is the industry sector „manufacturing of motor vehicles and
motor vehicle parts“, which can be understood as directly manu-
facturing automobiles. In the production cluster, in addition to the
manufacturers and suppliers from the cluster core, employees
from other processing industries, who are active in other supplier
companies or outfitters, can also be added. Ultimately, the entire
automotive cluster is comprised of the totality of the employees
from the cluster core and the production cluster, as well as the
employees of the automobile trade and employees of automobile-
based service companies.
3.3 THE AUTOMOBILE VALUE CREATION CHAIN AND ITS EFFECT
ON THE EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE
Measured by turnover, the Baden-Württemberg employment
structure has an approximate 22 percent share of the German au-
tomobile industry (317 billion euros in 2010) and approximately 6
percent of the worldwide automobile industry [Statistisches Lan-
desamt Baden-Württemberg (2011b); VDA (2011); BMU (2009)]. For
companies as well as for state policy, and also for the employees,
the forthcoming technology change to electromobility raises the
question of whether Baden-Württemberg can maintain a signifi-
cant portion of automobile value creation and the associated jobs,
in the future. According to a projection by the Federal Environment
Ministry, the total market for the automobile industry could be
approx. 1440 billion euros by 2020 [BMU 2009]. In this regard, the
market volume of alternative propulsion components will amount
to approximately 115 billion euros [McKinsey (2011a)].
3.3.1 CHANGES IN MANUFACTURING COSTS FOR BATTERY-
ELECTRIC VEHICLE CONCEPTS
In order to quantify the influence of the technological change to
electromobility on value creation, and ultimately in order to ana-
lyze the effects on the employment structure, it is necessary to
estimate costs for the components in question. In this study, the
period between the present date and the year 2020 was selected
for performing this estimate. In addition to technological progress
in development, possible scale effects and learning curve effects
must be considered for future series production. The estimate of
costs and cost reduction of the individual components is based
on a meta-analysis of published studies.
41
The results have been
validated by experts and updated for the period between the last
analysis/evaluation in 2009, and the present point in time (2011).
In terms of costs, the manufacturing costs assessed showed that
the manufacturer must either pay for in-house manufacturing or
for purchase of components. Mark-ups, for example in the form
of dealer margins, marketing costs and transport expenses were
not considered.
40 Author’s own projection, based on: IMU Institute (2011) I IHK (2011) I Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg (2011a)
41, see also: Santini (2010) I Miller (2011) I International Energy Agency (2011) I BCG (2010) I Gargner (2009) I Deutsche Bank (2010) I Electrification Coalition (2009) I Electrification Coalition
(2010) I SAE International (2011) I Universität Stuttgart (2009) I U.S. Department of Energy (2010) I European Commission (2005) I Mock (2010) I MIT (2008) I MIT (2007) I EPRI (2001) I Cristidis
(2005) I Dixon (2002) I Delorme (2009)