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44 In the underlying model, manufacturing costs were intentionally assessed for calculation of the „market volume“. On the one hand the mark-up costs, which
must be added to the manufacturing costs for determination of actual sales, vary dependent on the study and, on the other hand, it must be assumed that mark-ups
of new drivetrain components will deviate from those of conventional components.
subsequently broken down for the state, with due consideration
of the international positioning of Baden-Württemberg in the au-
tomobile industry.
44
As the basis for the definition, a selection of
vehicle models (models already available or announced on the
market) was chosen. Due to the still limited market forecasts re-
lating to the distribution of fuel cell vehicles in the year 2020, this
propulsion type was not used in the calculation.
It was possible to further extend the data basis as compared with
the previous study (2009/2010). Nevertheless, the different estima-
tes concerning cost development of electrified drivetrain compo-
nents, and the different forecasts relative to market developments,
make a detailed prediction difficult. Although at the time of the first
study (2009/2010) a somewhat more restrained picture was formed
of the sales figures in the year 2020, the market scenarios investi-
gated as part of the Structure Study 2011 on average show higher
sales. The underlying value of these for the year 2020 is 87 million
vehicles sold.
For the conventional technology of the combustion engine, by 2020
market growth of well over 3.3 billion euros can still be anticipated.
In addition to the marginally higher sales figures of conventional
vehicles with combustion engines, the thermally powered motor
is also used in hybrid vehicles. In this case, however, it should be
noted that there is a trend toward smaller motors (not only in hy-
brid vehicles).
Through the efforts to achieve increased fuel efficiency and to
meet the requirements for propulsion systems with lower pollu-
tion levels, optimizations associated with the combustion engine
(efficiency technologies) can generate significant market growth
by 2020. Accordingly, for gasoline engines, an increase in fuel ef-
ficiency by the year 2020 of as much as 30 percent is conceivable
(with additional costs of up to 50 percent) and for diesel engines of
as much as 20 percent (with additional costs of up to 15 percent)
[McKinsey (2011); BCG (2011); Electrification Coalition (2010)]. The
German Federal Environmental Agency assesses the additional
manufacturing costs at 281 to 329 euros, with an assumed CO
2
sa-
ving of 20 percent on the Otto engine [Umweltbundesamt (2008)].
Optimization potential for so-called efficiency technologies of-
fers approaches, such as direct injection, motor downsizing, tur-
bocharging, variable compression ratio and cylinder deactivation.
Moreover, additional savings can be achieved through start/stop
systems or an improved configuration of the cooling circuit [Mock
(2010); Universität Stuttgart (2009)]. These developments indicate
that in these areas, by the year 2020, an increase in the market
value by 25.1 billion euros could occur.
In conjunction with the thermally powered motor, the exhaust
system can also generate growth in market volume in the period
to 2020. As a guide, additional costs of 50 euros (gasoline) and
210 euros (diesel) can be assumed for maintaining the emission
limits of the forthcoming Euro-6 standard (based on EURO 5) which
will have binding effect on passenger vehicle manufacturers from
2015. By 2020, another reduction in CO
2
emission is scheduled,
from 130 grams CO
2
/km to a target value of 95 grams CO
2
/km, which
will result in additional new production costs [Mock (2010); Robert
Bosch (2011); Umweltbundesamt (2011)]. The necessity for an ex-
haust system in the hybrid concepts of the serial hybrid, plug-in
hybrid, and parallel hybrid vehicles also results in growth in mar-
ket volume. Overall, for this component there is a positive change
of approximately 11.3 billion euros by the year 2020.
Transmissions will continue to take a strong position and likewise
achieve a significant increase in market volume of approx. 18 bil-
lion euros by the year 2020. On the one hand, efficiency-optimized
transmissions for vehicles with a conventional combustion engine
will continue to be developed and, on the other hand, a number of,
in some cases extremely complex, hybrid transmissions will also
be required. Hybrid transmissions, in particular, take a subordinate
position due to the low number of vehicles to date and thus repre-
sent significant growth potential by the year 2020.
In the group of auxiliary aggregates, the components, steering
(electric compressor for electrohydraulic steering and compo-
nents for electromechanical steering) as well as air conditioning
were considered. In this regard it is clear that auxiliary aggregates
will continue to be electrified to achieve better consumption valu-
es for pure combustion vehicles or hybrids. This in turn results in
higher costs and thus an increase in market volume (change +14.7
billion euros). The dynamo for a hybrid vehicle will be replaced by
the existing generator and cannot grow as strongly in response to
the forecasted market development. Marginal growth only is also
expected for the starter battery.
Chapter 3