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45 Author’s own illustration
Fig. 36: Change in global market volume: Present - 2020 [in millions of euros]
45
The electric machine, as the core of the electrified drive train,
can generate a strong market volume by 2020. In this regard,
growth is expected to approximately 18.4 billion euros, which is
attributed to increasing hybridization and the forecast share of
pure battery electric vehicles of more than 5 percent of global
sales in 2020.
For the components of the power electronics and the other elec-
tronics, in the course of electrification of the vehicle, clear sales
growth of approximately 13 billion euros (power electronics), and
5.1 billion euros (other electronics) can be assumed. The market
for chargers will also grow significantly (+4.7 billion euros).
Battery technology, with a growth of almost 60 billion euros,
lies in first place by 2020, in front of the efficiency technologies,
being a beneficiary of the trend toward more energy-efficient
automobiles. In this regard, it should be stated that the relatively
low sales numbers of today’s hybrid and battery powered vehic-
les, in relation to the forecast sales figures in 2020, as well as
the relatively high value share of the entire battery system, will
cause a significant change in global market volume.
Thus, worldwide (given the correct assumption) for the compo-
nents considered (on the basis of the manufacturing costs) there
is a change in market volume of approx. 175 billion euros. More
than half of this growth by 2020 will be attributed to pure „elect-
rified components“ (power electronics, E-machine, battery sys-
tem, charger).
3.3.3 CONSEQUENCES FOR BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG
The changes in the global market that can be expected and the
effects of these changes on the Baden-Württemberg location
are examined below. Given the premise that Baden-Württem-
berg companies in the automobile industry will also have the
same market share of approximately 6 percent of worldwide
sales in 2020, the resulting employment effects are presented.
Based on the forecasts that by 2020 the combustion engine and the