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associated components and technologies will make up an even
higher share of total market volume than the „new propulsion
components“, this assumption can be plausibly substantiated. No
conclusions are drawn with respect to market and employment
developments beyond the year 2020. However, it should be noted
that even an increase in the market shares of pure battery-electric
vehicles of between approx. 5 and 15 percent (with a simultaneous
decrease of 10 percent in the combustion sector) in the underlying
calculation model would cause clear cut-backs in the growth of
conventional components and thus would also lower the effect on
employment in these areas.
The focus of the consideration is on the components of the dri-
vetrain. Potential employment effects that could occur in the au-
tomobile trade or in the automobile-based service sector have
not been examined. Calculation of job effects was made using
the coefficient of the full-time equivalent (FTE = 100 percent level
of employment). The value assumed for this is 400,000
/FTE.
46
A
summary has been made for the components, combustion engine
(combustion engine + tank system), auxiliary aggregates (+ starter
and generator), power electronics (LE, E/E and charger) and trac-
tion battery (traction battery and starter battery). The results are
summarized in Fig. 37.
Major significance is still ascribed to the classic combustion engi-
ne in the year 2020. For Baden-Württemberg, in this area an incre-
ase in market volume of approximately 240 million euros is expec-
ted, which however only corresponds to an annual growth rate of
one half of one percent. Significant gains of nearly 1.4 billion euros
by 2020 can be shown for efficiency technologies. At the assu-
med value of 400,000
/FTE, the growth in these two areas would
correspond to approximately 4060 full-time jobs.
47
Furthermore, for
the components, exhaust system (+0.62 billion euros or 1,560 FTE),
transmission (+1.0 billion euros or 2490 FTE), as well as consump-
tion-optimized or modified auxiliary aggregates (+0.81 billion euros
or 2020 FTE), the increasing sales volume offers clear employment
potential for Baden-Württemberg.
Components that are used due to electrification of the drivetrain,
such as the electric machine (+1.0 billion euros), the power elect-
ronics or other electronics (+1.26 billion euros) or the battery sys-
tem (+3.3 billion euros) can profit from the forecast developments
and generate attractive growth. Given the assumption that raw
materials represent the only imported materials, different maxi-
mum shares in value creation that can be achieved occur for the
different components [McKinsey (2011b)]. In the area of the elec-
tric machine this would result in a maximum possible value creati-
on share of 50 percent and an employment effect of approximately
1270 full-time equivalents. For the power electronics, 2820 full time
jobs would be created (at a maximum value creation share of 90
percent). The battery system (battery cell, as well as battery in-
tegration) can have an effect of 5769 full time equivalents at an
assumed value creation share of 70 percent.
Nearly half of the job potential shown by the year 2020, stands in a
clear relationship with electrification of the drivetrain, and indeed
through new components, such as the electric machine, the pow-
er electronics and the battery system (see Fig. 38).
Fig. 37: Change in market volume for Baden-Württemberg:
Present - 2020 [in millions of euros]
48
46 For the calculation, a cross section of the ratio of sales to number of employees of the participating industry sector in the production cluster was formed based on official statistics
(ES) (see Fig. 33). The industry sectors „Manufacturing of motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts“ (direct automobile construction ; ES-number 29), „Manufacturing of chemical pro-
ducts“ (ES-number 20), „Manufacturing of rubber and plastic goods“ (ES-number 22), „Manufacturing of metal products“ (ES-number 25), „Manufacturing of electrical equipment“
(ES-number 27) and „Machine tools“ (ES-number 28) were referenced with the possible respective proportions of employees within the automobile industry. The conversion of jobs
shown to full-time equivalents has been considered through an internal calculation. Possible substitution effects or spin-off effects have not been considered. Statistisches Landesamt
Baden-Württemberg (2011a) I Kinkel (2007).
47 Another approach for calculating the employment effects can occur via determination of the German or Baden-Württemberg share of value creation in the individual components.
48 Author’s own illustration
Chapter 3